New load forecasting service offers improved market information

22 February 2016

The service will provide users with timely and accurate information to support and improve strategic business decision-making.                                                                                  

The load forecasting service will provide half-hourly estimates of electricity consumption up to 14 days in advance – an extra seven days of data compared to what is available currently – alongside weather data and customisable forecasts, based on MetService-provided information.

Richard Rowell, Manager EMS, said that making the load forecast service available to market participants will produce a number of benefits across the industry.

“We previously conducted a benchmark exercise with a number of participants, which found the new load forecasting service could reduce load uncertainty by as much as 70%. The TESLA load forecast service was found to be the most accurate and reliable,” he said.

“Customers of the service will be able to benefit through smart use of the forecast, for example through improved bidding strategies and by scheduling load away from likely peak periods,” he said.

“The electricity market is strengthened when better information is available, so we expect this service will enable efficiencies for our customers. We would expect to see cost reductions from improvements in plant commitment between $3.3 million and $5.8 million for the 2016-2020 period.

“In the long term, we believe adopting this tool could lead to lower overall wholesale purchase costs from improved demand response, which would benefit for all New Zealanders."

 

For further information, please contact:   
Rebecca Wilson, Corporate Communications Manager, 04 590 6695 or 021 578 608

Quick facts

  • MetService will be the founding provider of the observational and forecast weather information. In time, other weather vendors will also be providing weather information which will result in multiple load forecasts that provide users with even higher levels of confidence.

  • The insights provided will be significantly more accurate, reflecting temperature-based sensitivities to load and maintaining a high degree of accuracy, even during critical peak periods and irregular occurrences such as public holidays.

  • Energy Market Services (EMS) is a commercial business group within Transpower New Zealand Ltd, delivering metering and information services to electricity market participants.

  • The load forecasting service will be delivered through EMS’s em6 information exchange, via the www.em6.co.nz web site. em6 is the leading source of up-to-date electricity market information and has a diverse subscriber base, both in terms of subscriber numbers and their position in the supply chain.

  • The Tesla forecasting tool is used in other electricity jurisdictions around the world, including the United States, Europe and Australia. It uses a huge volume of data such as historic and current load, weather observations and forecasts. The parameters are constantly updated to ensure that no new information is lost and a high degree of accuracy can be maintained.