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Wind Forecast

The system operator is preparing for a future with greater wind generation by trialling a wind forecast. Knowing in advance what wind generation the system operator can expect to turn up is key to ensuring a secure power system, providing accurate price signals, and facilitating outages.

There is already over 600 MW of wind generation on the system. As New Zealand transitions to a lower carbon economy the system operator expects this to increase, with a further 200 MW expected in the next few years and substantially more consented.

Security of Supply Analysis

Scenarios for Potential Thermal Fuel Supply Disruptions

Under the SoSFIP clause 13.2, the system operator must develop and make publicly available scenarios for potential thermal fuel supply disruptions. We have carried out this analysis using our existing Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectory framework to show potential future hydro storage under certain thermal fuel restriction scenarios. These analyses can be found in the links below.

 

Options to relieve Central North Island transmission constraints

In a series of reports published in March 2016, we highlighted that transmission capacity from Bunnythorpe to Whakamaru is constrained by the capacity of the 110 kV Bunnythorpe–Mataroa and 220 kV Tokaanu–Whakamaru circuits.  With the decommissioning of thermal generation in the Auckland region, the risk of these constraints binding increases. 

We have identified some low cost options to relieve these constraints in the short-term which include: