In 2018 Transpower launched Te Mauri Hiko – Energy Futures, aimed at stimulating industry discussion on what New Zealand’s energy future could look like. Taking a scenario-based approach, we considered what the year 2050 might bring, to begin to understand the opportunities and challenges we all need to focus on today.
Significant geo-political and technological changes are likely to increase uncertainty around the future, so it is critical we monitor the signs and drivers that underpin our scenarios. This process of active intelligence gathering helps us to identify which scenarios are looking increasingly likely, as well as new and divergent alternative scenarios.
Our quarterly monitoring report seeks to identify which key drivers of change remain consistent with, or vary from, the expected course we first outlined in our scenarios.
This is our Q3 monitoring report and in it we see:
- New Zealand’s population growth and economic performance may be consistently higher than first anticipated, resulting in a “Vibrant Haven” demand scenario
- Distributed solar uptake continues to track lower than anticipated, suggesting we may need to move to our new supply scenario of “Roaring 40s” which has higher wind and less residential solar
- Energy efficiency effects continue to be significant
- New Zealand’s approach to fossil fuel plant closure could be relaxed to focus on broader decarbonisation goals.