Load Forecast Accuracy Reporting

Latest Information

We are producing a monthly report comparing the System Operations load forecast (at 2.5 hrs ahead of real-time) against actual load observations.  This report separates conforming load (as forecast) and non-conforming load (as bid by participants). 

Load Forecast Accuracy

The metrics above are:

  • Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) - this is the mean of absolute errors per trading period divided by actual observations per trading period. EMS use the same measure for their Tesla Load Forecast comparison.
  • Mean Absolute Error - mean of absolute value of all errors. 

Distribution of Load Forecast Errors all New Zealand

 

If you have any feedback regarding this report or suggestions as to future metrics that may be of value please contact Dean.Eagle@transpower.co.nz or Charles.Chrystall@transpower.co.nz

Previous Reports

2017 July Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 596.49 KB ]
2017 June Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 601.54 KB ]
2017 May Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 630.22 KB ]
2017 April Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 466.37 KB ]
2017 March Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 464.63 KB ]
2017 February Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 483.85 KB ]
2017 January Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 483.56 KB ]
2016 December Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 457.46 KB ]
2016 November Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 236.63 KB ]
2016 October Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 238.38 KB ]
2016 September Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 243.43 KB ]
2016 August Load Forecast Accuracy [ pdf 244.27 KB ]