We are producing a monthly report comparing the System Operations load forecast (at 1.5 hrs ahead of real-time) against actual load observations. This report separates conforming load (as forecast) and non-conforming load (as bid by participants).
Load Forecast Accuracy
The metrics above are:
- Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) - this is the mean of absolute errors per trading period divided by actual observations per trading period. EMS use the same measure for their Tesla Load Forecast comparison.
- Mean Absolute Error - mean of absolute value of all errors.
Distribution of Load Forecast Errors all New Zealand
If you have any feedback regarding this report or suggestions as to future metrics that may be of value please contact firstname.lastname@example.org