We are producing a monthly report comparing the System Operations load forecast (at 1.5 hrs ahead of real-time) against actual load observations. This report separates conforming load (as forecast) and non-conforming load (as bid by participants).
Load Forecast Accuracy
The metrics above are:
- Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) - this is the mean of absolute errors per trading period divided by actual observations per trading period. EMS use the same measure for their Tesla Load Forecast comparison.
- Mean Absolute Error - mean of absolute value of all errors.
Distribution of Load Forecast Errors all New Zealand