The system operator is preparing for a future with greater wind generation by trialling a wind forecast. Knowing in advance what wind generation the system operator can expect to turn up is key to ensuring a secure power system, providing accurate price signals, and facilitating outages.
There is already over 600 MW of wind generation on the system. As New Zealand transitions to a lower carbon economy the system operator expects this to increase, with a further 200 MW expected in the next few years and substantially more consented.
We have entered into a 12 month trial comparing the offered wind generation to a forecast supplied to the system operator by a forecasting specialist. This comparison is published below for North Island offered generation over 24 hours. We will also publish accuracy analysis each month.
Any wind generator interested in receiving a free 24 hour forecast specifically for their wind farm can contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
Monthly accuracy analysis
These charts compare the accuracy of the system operator trial wind forecasts and generator forecast of generation potential (FOGP) for September.
Chart A compares mean absolute error (MAE) in MW over a range of forecast horizons. As reference points, the average North Island wind generation for September 2019 was 244 MW, and the installed North Island wind capacity is 577 MW.
Chart B compares the distribution of errors over 3 forecast horizons.