Electricity Risk Curves

Current Status

As at 6 November, the risk level for the New Zealand and the South Island is set to Normal.

  • Watch represents 8 weeks until actual storage reaches Emergency level.
  • Alert represents 3 weeks until actual storage reaches Emergency level.
  • If actual storage drops below Emergency level, an emergency situation will be declared and an Official Conservation Campaign will commence. For more information, see here.

Electricity Risk Curves

New Zealand and South Island controlled storage are below average. The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Status Curves.

The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Curves - Percentage Risk.

 

 

Electricity Risk Curve Files

Latest New Zealand Electricity Risk and South Island Electricity Risk Curves [ pdf 548.85 KB ]
Electricity Risk Curve Data for 2019 and 2020 [ xlsx 36.12 KB ] (Effective from 30 October 2019)
Electricity Risk Curve Input Assumptions [ pdf 1.07 MB ] (Effective from 30 October 2019)
Electricity Risk Curve Update Log [ pdf 1.15 MB ] (Effective from 30 October 2019)
Thermal Fuel Scenarios - March 2019  [ pdf 1.93 MB ] 

Simulated Storage Trajectories Files

Simulated Storage Trajectories [ pdf 292.23 KB ] (Effective from 30 October 2019)
Simulated Storage Trajectories: Assumptions [ pdf 695.46 KB ] (Effective from 30 October 2019)

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