Electricity Risk Curves

Current Status

As at 22 August, the risk level for the New Zealand and the South Island is set to Normal.

  • Watch represents 8 weeks until actual storage reaches Emergency level.
  • Alert represents 3 weeks until actual storage reaches Emergency level.
  • If actual storage drops below Emergency level, an emergency situation will be declared and an Official Conservation Campaign will commence. For more information, see here.

Electricity Risk Curves

New Zealand and South Island controlled storage is above average. The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Status Curves.

The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Curves - Percentage Risk.

 

 

ERC Files

Latest New Zealand Electricity Risk and South Island Electricity Risk Curves [ pdf 544.81 KB ]
Electricity Risk Curve Data for 2019 and 2020 [ xlsx 43.26 KB ] (Effective from 1 August 2019)
Electricity Risk Curve Input Assumptions [ pdf 1.04 MB ] (Effective from 1 August 2019)
Electricity Risk Curve Update Log [ pdf 979.33 KB ] (Effective from 1 August 2019)
Simulated Storage Trajectories [ pdf 294.09 KB ] (Effective from 8 August 2019)
Simulated Storage Trajectories: Assumptions [ pdf 827.27 KB ] (Effective from 8 August 2019)
Thermal Fuel Scenarios - March 2019  [ pdf 1.93 MB ] 

Learn more about Security of Supply

Web page on HRC Curves
HRC101 - Introduction to the Hydro Risk Curves [ pdf 356.8 KB ]
HRC101 - Thermal Fuel Assumptions [ pdf 490.79 KB ]
HRC101 - Contingent Storage [ pdf 372.62 KB ]
HRC101 - Demand Forecast [ pdf 619.98 KB ]
HRC101 - Generation Assumptions [ pdf 279.3 KB ]
HRC101 - Generator Outages [ pdf 273.01 KB ]
HRC101 - Electricity Risk Meter [ pdf 394.77 KB ]
HRC101 - Transmission Assumptions [ pdf 399 KB ]
HRC101 - Impact of Assumptions [ pdf 399 KB ]
HRC101 - Simulated Storage Trajectories [ pdf 665.92 KB ]
SOS101 - Electricity Risk Curves [ pdf 532.94 KB ]
Security of Supply and HRC Animation