Hydro Risk Curves

Current Status

New Zealand  and South Island Hydro Risk Meter

The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Hydro Risk Curves.

As at 22 April, New Zealand and South Island controlled storage is above average.  The risk meter for the New Zealand and the South Island is set to Normal.

Find out more about hydro risk curves
Latest New Zealand Hydro Risk and South Island Hydro Risk Curves [ pdf 50.64 KB ]
Hydro Risk Curve Update Log [ pdf 679.48 KB ]
Hydro Risk Curve Input Assumptions [ pdf 901.1 KB ] (Effective from 22 March 2018)
Hydro Risk Curve Data for 2018 [ xlsx 29.82 KB ] (Effective from 22 March 2018) 
HRC Demand forecast update note - January 2018 [ pdf 707.58 KB ]
Simulated Storage Trajectories [ pdf 215.74 KB ] (Updated 21 March 2018)
Simulated Storage Trajectories: Assumptions [ pdf 678.04 KB ] (Updated 21 March 2018)

HRC assumptions: Thermal fuel limitations

Transpower has requested feedback on our proposed treatment of potential limitation of thermal fuel availability in the Hydro Risk Curve (HRC) assumptions.

We have recently received information from Genesis Energy regarding a potential limitation of thermal fuel availability. We expect this limitation, if modelled in the HRCs, would yield a material change to the HRCs.  As such we are seeking feedback on the treatment of this information with respect to the HRC assumptions, as required by clause 6.3 of the Security of Supply Forecasting and Information Policy [ pdf 425.37 KB ].

We invited interested parties to provide feedback to us on this matter, this closed on 19 January 2018 and is currently being reviewed.

HRC Assumption thermal fuel limitations [ pdf 796.65 KB ]
Thermal fuel limitation consultation – Update 6 March 2018
Thermal Fuel Limitation Submissions 
Bryan Leyland [ pdf 19.44 KB ] Contact Energy [ pdf 22.43 KB ] Cumulus [ pdf 397.32 KB ]
Genesis [ pdf 280.06 KB ] Mercury [ pdf 40.06 KB ] Meridian [ pdf 205.78 KB ]
MEUG [ pdf 100.46 KB ] Murray Ellis [ pdf 13.81 KB ] Nova [ pdf 184.5 KB ]
Shell [ pdf 92.75 KB ] Trust Power [ pdf 471.72 KB ] Unison [ pdf 276.25 KB ]
Vocus [ pdf 49.67 KB ]