Hydro Risk Curves

Current Status

As at 14 July, the risk level for the New Zealand and the South Island is set to Normal.

  • Watch represents 8 weeks until actual storage reaches Emergency level.
  • Alert represents 3 weeks until actual storage reaches Emergency level.
  • If actual storage drops below Emergency level, an emergency situation will be declared and an Official Conservation Campaign will commence. For more information, see here.

Hydro Risk Curves

New Zealand and South Island controlled storage is above average. The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Curves.

HRC Files

Latest New Zealand Hydro Risk and South Island Hydro Risk Curves [ pdf 254.73 KB ]
Hydro Risk Curve Data for 2019 and 2020 [ xlsx 37.09 KB ] (Effective from 21 May 2019)
Hydro Risk Curve Input Assumptions [ pdf 930.46 KB ] (Effective from 21 May 2019)
Hydro Risk Curve Update Log [ pdf 773.83 KB ] (Effective from 21 May 2019)
Simulated Storage Trajectories [ pdf 157.76 KB ] (Effective from 21 May 2019)
Simulated Storage Trajectories: Assumptions [ pdf 678.79 KB ] (Effective from 21 May 2019)

Learn more about Security of Supply

Web page on HRC Curves
HRC101 - Introduction to the Hydro Risk Curves [ pdf 356.8 KB ]
HRC101 - Thermal Fuel Assumptions [ pdf 490.79 KB ]
HRC101 - Contingent Storage [ pdf 372.62 KB ]
HRC101 - Demand Forecast [ pdf 619.98 KB ]
HRC101 - Generation Assumptions [ pdf 279.3 KB ]
HRC101 - Generator Outages [ pdf 273.01 KB ]
HRC101 - Electricity Risk Meter [ pdf 394.77 KB ]
HRC101 - Transmission Assumptions [ pdf 399 KB ]
HRC101 - Impact of Assumptions [ pdf 399 KB ]
HRC101 - Simulated Storage Trajectories [ pdf 665.92 KB ]
Security of Supply and HRC Animation