Hydro Risk Curves

Current Status

New Zealand  and South Island Hydro Risk Meter

The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Hydro Risk Curves.

As at 11 February, New Zealand and South Island controlled storage is below average for the time of the year.  The risk meter for the New Zealand and the South Island is set to Normal.

Find out more about hydro risk curves
Latest New Zealand Hydro Risk and South Island Hydro Risk Curves [ pdf 49.01 KB ]
Hydro Risk Curve Input Assumptions [ pdf 895.6 KB ] (Effective from 31 January 2018)
Hydro Risk Curve Data for 2018 [ xlsx 26.95 KB ] (Effective from 31 January 2018) 
HRC Demand forecast update note - January 2018 [ pdf 707.58 KB ]
Simulated Storage Trajectories [ pdf 222.03 KB ] (Updated 27 July 2017)
Simulated Storage Trajectories: Assumptions [ pdf 718.19 KB ] (Updated 27 July 2017)

HRC assumptions: Thermal fuel limitations

Transpower has requested feedback on our proposed treatment of potential limitation of thermal fuel availability in the Hydro Risk Curve (HRC) assumptions.

We have recently received information from Genesis Energy regarding a potential limitation of thermal fuel availability. We expect this limitation, if modelled in the HRCs, would yield a material change to the HRCs.  As such we are seeking feedback on the treatment of this information with respect to the HRC assumptions, as required by clause 6.3 of the Security of Supply Forecasting and Information Policy [ pdf 425.37 KB ].

We invited interested parties to provide feedback to us on this matter, this closed on 19 January 2018 and is currently being reviewed.

HRC Assumption thermal fuel limitations [ pdf 796.65 KB ]