Security of Supply Analysis

Scenarios for Potential Thermal Fuel Supply Disruptions

Under the SoSFIP clause 13.2, the system operator must develop and make publicly available scenarios for potential thermal fuel supply disruptions. We have carried out this analysis using our existing Electricity Risk Curve and Simulated Storage Trajectory framework to show potential future hydro storage under certain thermal fuel restriction scenarios. These analyses can be found in the links below.

 

Thermal Fuel Scenarios - March 2020 [ pdf 664.85 KB ]
Thermal Fuel Scenarios - December 2019 [ pdf 706.03 KB ]
Thermal Fuel Scenarios - September 2019 [ pdf 1.78 MB ]
Thermal Fuel Scenarios - March 2019 [ pdf 1.93 MB ]

What If

From time-to-time we will explore the possible impact of scenarios on the utilisation of hydro storage, the security of supply metric for energy production, given historic inflow sequences.  The base case for such scenarios will be the most recently published Simulated Storage Trajectories [ pdf 133.15 KB ] (SSTs) based on the same assumptions.

Possible gas restriction during 2020 HVDC outage

Prior to, and during, the 2020 HVDC outage there are a number of notified gas field outages that may reduce gas available for thermal generation stemming from either procurement choice or physical availability. This scenario has been updated with the following, latest, assumptions. The assumed start storage for simulated storage trajectories (SSTs) has also been updated, however storage has continued to increase since the modelling was undertaken.

HVDC Modelled Availability

Date (2020)

Transfer (MW, sent)

From

To

North

South

7-Jan

17-Jan

500

275

18-Jan

18-Jan

0

0

19-Jan

31-Jan

406

275

1-Feb

1-Feb

0

0

2-Feb

26-Feb

406

275

27-Feb

6-Mar

500

275

7-Mar

7-Mar

0

0

8-Mar

20-Mar

406

275

21-Mar

21-Mar

0

0

22-Mar

9-Apr

500

275

Field

Date

Modelled Generation Availability (MW)
Gas Field Outages
  From To  

Kupe

30-Oct-19

27-Nov-19

258

Generic

1-Jan-20

24-Apr-20

0

Ahuroa Storage

7-Feb-20

23-Feb-20

0

Pohokura (offshore)

11-Mar-20

24-Mar-20

344

 

2020 HVDC and Gas Field Outages Simulated Storage Trajectories Graph [ pdf 290.43 KB ]