Invitation To Comment: 2026 Security of Supply Assessment: Reference Case Assumptions and Sensitivities (Closed)

Submissions are now closed.

During November 2026 Transpower, in its role as System Operator, sort feedback on the proposed assumptions and sensitivities for the 2026 Security of Supply Assessment (SOSA). The SOSA is an annual publication that provides a 10-year outlook on the balance between electricity supply and demand in New Zealand. It supports risk management and investment decisions by market participants, policy makers, and other stakeholders.  

The consultation invited stakeholders to provide feedback on:

  • The proposed Reference case assumptions, which represent expected resources available to the power system over the next decade.
  • The proposed supply and demand side sensitivities, which explore plausible variations from the Reference case under different future scenarios.
  • Our proposal to introduce an Expected Future case that would represent the combination of Reference case sensitivities we think (at the time of publishing SOSA 2026) reflect our current view of a most likely outcome for the 10-year modelled period (2026-2035).  We could then report on how the market is actually tracking against this expected future case through our quarterly Security of Supply Outlook updates

Consultation Document

Submissions

We received five submissions listed below.

Energy Resources AotearoaView
FonterraView
MercuryView
MeridianView
MEUGView