Generally, trying to predict the future will have one outcome: you will be wrong. But, if you look hard enough at a range of emerging technologies and trends, you can start to build a picture of how the future is likely to look.
Whakamana i Te Mauri Hiko is the second key paper produced by Transpower, examining the potential future scenarios that may impact Aotearoa New Zealand's energy future.
Published in March 2020, it shows how accelerated electrification stands to provide a stronger, more reliable system with much lower reliance on fossil fuel imports at the same time as cutting average household energy costs.
Read the report and supporting data here Whakamana i Te Mauri Hiko.
The document updates and advances the thinking first released in the 2018 Te Mauri Hiko - Energy Futures paper.
Report highlights include:
- Around 40 new, grid-scale generation and batteries projects required to 2035;
- Generation of around 95% renewable by 2035, moving to 100% by 2050 is achievable;
- Smart grid made up of millions of smart appliances and smart EV chargers plus many small scale solar photovoltaic and battery systems in 2035, easing the need for more generation and network investment;
- Around 1.5 million light electric vehicles on our roads in 2035, near 100% in 2050;
- Current coal and gas use for process heat to be around 50% electrified by 2035 with significant uptake in low temperature process heat;
- Average, two car (one an EV in 2035) household sees total energy bill cut by 25%/$1631 in 2035; and,
- Electrification and renewable generation can provide over 50% of the non-forestry emissions reductions required to achieve net zero carbon by 2050.
A closer examination
As our understanding of variables affecting future scenarios become more refined, we will release reports related to key topics. We are sharing information in an attempt to help industry, government, and consumers better understand the challenges and opportunities we are likely to experience in the years and decades ahead. It is our hope this information can spark a conversation that can help enable the decarbonisation of New Zealand's economy in the most efficient way possible.
Whakamana i Te Mauri Hiko: March 2020
Whakamana i Te Mauri Hiko: March 2020 appendices
Te Mauri Hiko: June 2018