Our scenarios

Based on insights from our earlier consultation along with research and industry engagement, we built five scenarios describing potential futures for Aotearoa in 2050.

Each scenario includes descriptions of the global and local contexts, the state of the economy, how electrification has progressed, the social and demographic shifts along with the likely mix of electricity generation.

Through these scenarios, we hope to identify the range of electricity demand that our national grid might need to support.

We released our draft scenarios in October 2025 and then undertook wide public consultation and engagement. Thank you to everybody who provided feedback. The final scenarios, published in March 2026, include several changes that your feedback helped to inform.

Consultation now open

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Cover image from Future Direction - Our Energy Scenarios document

We are currently consulting on Future Direction - Our Energy Scenarios. After reading the document, you can provide feedback in two ways:

Consultation is open until 5pm, Monday 30 March 2026.

Documents

Explore our scenarios

Use this dashboard to explore our five future scenarios in more detail. 

Note:

  • Unless stated, these are the finalised scenarios released in Future Direction - Our Energy Scenarios.
  • The data in these do not represent an official forecast and should not be taken as such.