Developing, prioritising and updating NZGP scenarios

Information about our consideration, development, and publication of variations to the 2019 EDGS.


In late 2020, we sought industry representatives to help us consider whether variations on MBIE’s EDGS, which were published in July 2019, were needed for our NZGP thinking. It was considered that changes since July 2019 had impacted both electricity demand and electricity supply. We did not propose to vary the core stories that sit behind each scenario in the EDGS, but to propose demand and supply scenarios separately.

Through panel meetings, engagement with MBIE, and formal industry consultation, we did decide to create EDGS variations, which have been used for NZGP modelling. These included five up-to-date demand scenarios, and a matrix of possible supply scenarios.

The EDGS variations have been met with general approval.

We offer our continuing thanks to the our Scenario Development Panel members who provided insightful and useful feedback on our initial thoughts in regard to bringing the EDGS 2019 up to date.

The EDGS variation consultation information, videos of panel meetings, notes, and submissions received are available here.


Further to our consultation on variations to EDGS 2019, we sought additional feedback from all generation investors on the supply-side generation scenarios, specifically around new wind and solar generation in May 2021.

The 2020-21 consultation on variations to EDGS provided enough certainty on demand side scenarios. However, to produce accurate predications we sought further information on the supply side. We specifically sought input on how to prioritise potential new wind and solar generation investment. Because of the similarities between the various potential wind and solar projects in New Zealand, it is difficult to select regions to enable first for this type of new generation.

The consultation information and submissions received are available here.


Transpower published its view of future electricity supply and demand scenarios that will drive upcoming investment on the National Grid in December 2021. The Net Zero Grid Pathways Scenarios Update 2021 outlines five possible scenarios and will be critical to determining the grid investments needed to 2035, to enable renewables and electrification.

Thanks to those who have shared information through the consultation process, including existing generators, future investors, others in the electricity sector, and electricity users.

View the NZGP1 Scenarios Update, December 2021.

Read the news story: Transpower’s updated electricity scenarios will guide future investment