Energy security outlook

April 2025 Energy Security Outlook

Energy Security Outlook - April 2025.pdf (PDF 3.66 MB)
The national controlled hydro storage position has slightly improved since last months update and now sits at 83% of the historic mean as of 28 April.
The Electricity Risk Curves (ERCs) for 2025 and 2026 have increased relative to the March update, indicating a higher risk. The increase is largely due to a decrease in forecasted gas supply.
Two of the 93 Simulated Storage Trajectories (SST) briefly cross the Watch curve in June 2025. No SSTs approach the Alert curve or the boundary of contingent storage. This assumes the market supplements the existing coal stockpile and gas availability for electricity generation to maintain increased thermal generation during low hydro inflows.
The ERCs assume coal will be replenished at its maximum import capability. The gap between the firm contracted coal and the assumed maximum import capability from May through to the end of October is equivalent to 105 kT of additional coal orders.
Consistent with the SOSFIP the ERCs also assume Methanex will operate one train at 80 TJ/day. Recent operation has been reported as ~50-52 TJ/day with estimates of ~15-20 TJ/day of gas being on-sold for generation. In this month's Energy Security Outlook we look at the impact on the ERCs if an extra 15 TJ/day from Methanex was available for electricity generation over high risk months (April-October). This reduces the ERCs with no SSTs crossing the ERCs in 2025 (i.e. improves the risk position).
The market is responding to the low hydro storage with the gap between contracted thermal fuels and forecast fuel available for generation reducing. Continued focus on hydro storage management and ensuring sufficient backup thermal fuel availability will support an increased thermal generation response under extended periods of low inflows over winter.
Genesis have recently indicated potential retirement of a Huntly Rankine unit in early 2026 via their FY25 Q3 Performance Report. This month's ERCs and SSTs assume 3 Rankine units are available in 2026. We will consider the potential impact of a Rankine unit exiting in 2026 as part of our update next month.