May 2025 Energy Security Outlook
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Energy Security Outlook - May 2025.pdf (PDF 3.66 MB)
- The national controlled hydro storage position has slightly improved since last month's update and now sits at 92% of the historic mean as of 28 May.
- The Electricity Risk Curves (ERCs) for May and June 2025 have dropped relative to the April update due to the purchase of gas from industrial users by electricity generators. This includes the Methanex/Contact deal. Consistent with the SOSFIP the ERCs otherwise assume Methanex will operate one train at 80 TJ/day.
- The ERCs for 2026 have increased relative to the April update, indicating a higher risk. This is primarily due to the announced retirement of a Rankine unit in January 2026, indicated in Genesis's FY25 Q3 Performance Report.
- No Simulated Storage Trajectories (SSTs) cross the Watch curve in 2025. 17 of the 93 SSTs cross the Watch curve in January-July 2026. This assumes the market supplements the existing coal stockpile at its maximum import capability to maintain increased thermal generation during low hydro inflows.
- The gap between the firmly contracted coal imports and the assumed maximum capability from May through to October is equivalent to 95 kT of additional coal orders.
- While the market has responded to mitigate hydro storage risk in 2025, continued focus on hydro storage management and ensuring sufficient backup thermal fuel availability will support an increased thermal generation response under extended periods of low inflows over winter.
In this month's scenario we look at the impact on the ERCs if the third Rankine unit were to remain available. This lowers the ERC Watch curve by up to 630 GWh and results in no SSTs crossing the ERCs.
The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Status Curves.
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To learn more about the Energy Security Outlook click here
Related Files
Energy Security Outlook Data Files
ERC data file.xlsx
(XLSX 13.47 KB)
SST data file.xlsx
(XLSX 940.16 KB)
Assumptions and Update Logs
- Scenarios
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Reduced Gas Scenario - January 2025.pdf (PDF 3.48 MB)ERC Update Log - Early Tauhara Scenario - April 2024.pdf (PDF 1.66 MB)ERC Update - November 2023 Gas Reallocation.pdf (PDF 1.75 MB)ERC Update - November 2023 Additional Rankine .pdf (PDF 1.75 MB)ERC Gas Reallocation Scenario October 2023.pdf (PDF 1.43 MB)
- Historic Logs
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Energy Security Outlook - May 2025.pdf (PDF 3.66 MB)Energy Security Outlook - April 2025.pdf (PDF 3.66 MB)Energy Security Outlook - March 2025.pdf (PDF 2.75 MB)Energy Security Outlook - February 2025.pdf (PDF 2.54 MB)Energy Security Outlook - January 2025.pdf (PDF 3.48 MB)Energy Security Outlook - December 2024.pdf (PDF 1.89 MB)ERC and SST Update - November 2024.pdf (PDF 2.07 MB)ERC Update October 2024.pdf (PDF 1.99 MB)ERC Update September 2024.pdf (PDF 1.92 MB)ERC_Update_August_V2_2024.pdf (PDF 1.93 MB)ERC update - August 2024.pdf (PDF 1.9 MB)ERC Update Log - July 2024.pdf (PDF 1.91 MB)ERC Update Log - April 2024.pdf (PDF 2.16 MB)ERC Update Log - March 2024.pdf (PDF 2.71 MB)ERC Update Log - February 2024.pdf (PDF 2.71 MB)ERC update - January 2024 Gas Reallocation.pdf (PDF 1.53 MB)ERC update log - January 2024.pdf (PDF 2.03 MB)ERC Update Log - December 2023.pdf (PDF 2.01 MB)ERC Update Log - November 2023.pdf (PDF 2.06 MB)ERC Update Log - October 2023.pdf (PDF 1.88 MB)ERC Update Log - September 2023.pdf (PDF 1.85 MB)ERC Update Log - August 2023.pdf (PDF 1.88 MB)ERC Update Log - July 2023.pdf (PDF 1.93 MB)