The Energy Security Outlook (ESO) is a monthly report that helps track how secure New Zealand’s electricity supply might be over the next two years. It uses two key tools, the Electricity Risk Curves (ERCs) and Simulated Storage Trajectories (SSTs), to show how likely it is that we’ll have enough electricity, especially during dry periods when hydro lakes are low.
For more information on how it works and why it matters, we have published an 'ESO 101' document that covers how ERCs and SSTs help forecast electricity risks, what triggers action when supply looks tight, and how extra hydro storage can be used if needed.
January 2026 Energy Security Outlook
- The national controlled hydro storage position remains very high and now sits at 127% of the historic mean at 26 January. South Island storage is at 125%.
- Since the December Energy Security Outlook gas storage has increased. However, this is partially offset by an increase to the demand forecast and slight decrease in gas production forecast over 2026. The net effect on the Watch, Alert, and Emergency curves is a modest decrease over the January-April 2026 period, and an increase for July and August 2026.
- No Simulated Storage Trajectories (SSTs) cross the Watch curve in 2026 or in 2027. This assumes the market supplements the existing coal stockpile at its maximum import capability to maintain increased thermal generation during any extended periods of low hydro inflows.
- As we approach winter 2026, an ongoing focus on hydro storage management and ensuring sufficient backup thermal fuels and capacity remains necessary to mitigate the potential for very high prices.
- As of January 2026, hydro storage, gas storage and coal stockpile are all sitting at or close to their maximum levels.
The graphs below compare New Zealand and South Island controlled storage to the relevant Electricity Risk Status Curves.
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Related Files
Energy Security Outlook Data Files
Assumptions and Update Logs
- Scenarios
- Historic Logs