Electricity Risk Curves Explanation

Risk curves have been developed for the purposes of reflecting the risk of extended energy shortages in a straightforward way, using a standardised set of assumptions.

Learn more about Security of Supply

Web page on HRC Curves
HRC101 - Introduction to the Hydro Risk Curves. [ pdf 356.8 KB ]
HRC101 - Thermal Fuel Assumptions [ pdf 490.79 KB ]
HRC101 - Contingent Storage [ pdf 372.62 KB ]
SOS101 - Demand Forecast [ pdf 615.67 KB ]
SOS101 - Generation Assumptions [ pdf 246.5 KB ]
SOS101 - Generator Outages [ pdf 273.58 KB ]
HRC101 - Risk Meter [ pdf 394.77 KB ]
SOS101 - Transmission Assumptions [ pdf 400.01 KB ]
SOS101 - Impact of Assumptions [ pdf 953.78 KB ]
Security of Supply and HRC Animation

Thermal Fuels  Validation

In late-2017 we received information from Genesis Energy regarding a potential limitation of thermal fuel availability. This prompted a review of the treatment of thermal fuel, and specifically potential thermal fuel limitations, in the HRC Input Assumptions. Since December 2018 when preparing the Hydro Risk Curves (HRCs), we have included an additional step to validate the thermal fuel consumption in the HRC modelling in light of known constraints to fuel supplies. This step was added to the process following consultation earlier in the year. For more information on this consultation, please contact the Security of Supply team at system.operator@transpower.co.nz

The modified process for the treatment of thermal fuels in the HRC assumptions is described in the document below.

Thermal Fuel Assumptions in the Hydro Risk Curve [ pdf 891.57 KB ] - November 2018

On 1 April 2019, we held an industry teleconference to discuss the treatment of thermal fuels in the HRCs. A summary of this teleconference is included below.

Summary of Teleconference on Treatment of Thermal Fuels in the HRCs [ pdf 468.51 KB ] - April 2019